:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 11/2202Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
12/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0023Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 895 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 083
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 083/081/081
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10