:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0843Z from Region 2894 (S28W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/0312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1851Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1185 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 081
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 081/081/083
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  005/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/35