:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 14/0114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0319Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1600 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 078
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 079/080/079
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  006/005-008/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/35/35