:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 15/2100Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 15/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at
15/1937Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2753 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and
quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 079
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 080/078/078
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  008/012-012/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/10