:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 17/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 17/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0016Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 079
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10