:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 17/2134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/0518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 365 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 082
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 080/080/082
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  007/008-009/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/50