:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 22/0054Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 078
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 078/080/082
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10