:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 23/1344Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/0707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0833Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1093 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 080
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 080/082/082
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10