:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 477 km/s at 25/0034Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/0044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0242Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 999 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 094
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 092/090/090
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  006/005-013/016-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/60/60