:Product: 1126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov,
28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 25/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
26/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1551Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2341 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 092
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 092/090/090
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  013/016-016/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/15
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/65/25