:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0922Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1122Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 869 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 092
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 090/090/092
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  016/018-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/10