:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov,
30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 28/0445Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 28/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
28/0127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 412 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 092
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 092/094/094
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10