:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov,
01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 29/0515Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 28/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/0123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 090
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 092/092/090
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10