:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec,
03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 01/0624Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 30/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 30/2124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 527 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 086
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 086/084/080
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  010/010-011/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/25
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/50/35