:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/1623Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2920 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 087
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 086/084/084
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  013/014-010/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/40