:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/1647Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4873 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 085
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 084/082/082
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  012/015-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/30