:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
04/0515Z from Region 2898 (S24, l=236). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 04/0257Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0028Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1220 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 088
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 084/082/080
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20