:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0719Z from Region 2898 (S24, L=236). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (06 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 05/1718Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1450Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 083
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 082/080/080
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20