:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 08/1250Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/0051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/0701Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (10 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 077
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 078/080/082
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  006/005-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/30/30