:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 09/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
10/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/1111Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2745 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 076
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 076/076/078
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  008/010-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/30