:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 339 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (14 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 080
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 080/080/082
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  008/008-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/15/40