:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0826Z from Region 2907 (S21E49). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 14/2025Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/1930Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/0049Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 089
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 090/092/092
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25