:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/1905Z from Region 2918 (N19E11). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 25/1830Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/0715Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1352 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Dec, 27 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 131
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  009/010-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/45