:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/2012Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 26/0304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2083 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 125
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 125/125/122
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  006/005-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/45