:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/0428Z from Region 2916 (S17W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1302Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 111
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/010-007/008-005/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25