:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 30/1237Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 30/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/0109Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 102
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 102/100/100
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  007/008-005/006-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40