:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0730Z from Region 2918 (N22W81). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 01/1902Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
01/0238Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 275 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 094
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 094/092/090
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/20