:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0012Z from Region 2918 (N22W95). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 02/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/0634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/0103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 089
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 088/088/085
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20