:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class or M-class flare on day one (04 Jan)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 03/0624Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0852Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 586 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 084
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 084/082/080
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20