:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06
Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 03/2356Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 03/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/0209Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 866 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 086
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20