:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (06 Jan) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 450 km/s at 05/2043Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0416Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1227Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1009 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 084
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 084/088/092
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20