:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Jan) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 406 km/s at 06/0715Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
05/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1751Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 910 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 094
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 094/096/096
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  005/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40