:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0022Z. Total IMF
reached 26 nT at 08/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 08/2358Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 102
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 102/102/105
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  006/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20