:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 10/0650Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 102
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 102/105/110
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20