:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan,
14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 12/1609Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
12/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1601Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 103
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 104/106/108
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  005/005-006/005-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/65