:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/1142Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 535 km/s at 13/1536Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (15 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 106
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 106/108/110
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-011/014-018/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor Storm           01/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/65/70