:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
14/2057Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 110
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  014/018-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/70/50