:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0854Z from Region 2932 (N32E60). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (16 Jan) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 15/1944Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 14/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 14/2114Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jan), unsettled to
active levels on day two (17 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 116
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 110/108/108
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  012/015-015/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/30