:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/1945Z from Region 2929 (N08W30). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Jan) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 16/0249Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 15/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/2343Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2283 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (18 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (19
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 119
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  015/018-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20