:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan,
21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 19/0627Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 19/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 19/0112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3588 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 105
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 102/098/094
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  011/014-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/25