:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
20/0601Z from Region 2929 (N08W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (21 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 19/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
20/0839Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22 pfu at 20/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     20/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 099
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 095/093/091
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  008/008-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/50