:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 503 km/s at 21/1732Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/1256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/1417Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7 pfu at 20/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3999 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 097
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 095/093/089
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  009/010-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/50/30