:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Jan) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 23/0218Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0325Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6126 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 094
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/088
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  011/012-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/40