:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/1029Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/2059Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 25/1101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/1510Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 101
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/20
Minor Storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/25