:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
25/2349Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1906Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0848Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (28 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 102
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40