:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
29/1655Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1044Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
28/2119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet levels on day
two (31 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 125
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 128/130/125
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  009/010-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/30
Minor Storm           15/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    50/20/40