:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0350Z from Region 2940 (N17E61). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 31/0950Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1400Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2816 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb), active to major
storm levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (03 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 130
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  013/015-027/045-012/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           30/40/10
Major-severe storm    15/30/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    70/85/40