:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1117Z from Region 2936 (N17W62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb,
06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 03/1319Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 03/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 03/0853Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 127
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 128/130/125
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  026/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  011/012-016/020-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/65/65