:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1341Z from Region 2939 (S16W20). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb,
08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 06/0849Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1200Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4443 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 124
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 122/120/120
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  011/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15