:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2306Z from Region 2941 (N25E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb,
10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 473 km/s at 08/0038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11396 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 123
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 122/120/110
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/014-018/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/45
Minor Storm           25/35/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    60/75/60